Seminário sobre Política Monetária e Regulação Macroprudencial no Rio de Janeiro

O Banco Central do Brasil e o G20 – Grupo dos Vinte, que congrega 20 grandes economias desenvolvidas e emergentes, sob a presidência da França em 2011 – organizam seminário internacional sobre política monetária e regulação macroprudencial. O evento será realizado no Rio de Janeiro na quinta (30) e sexta-feira (1º), e todas as discussões e apresentações serão feitas em inglês.

O seminário, intitulado Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Regulation With High Level of Liquidity: New Policy Challenges for Macro and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets, será fechado à imprensa, a exceção de algumas atividades.

O evento acontecerá no Hotel Sofitel Copacabana (Avenida Atlântica, 4240, Copacabana , Rio de Janeiro).

Programação

G20 Seminar
June 30-July 1, 2011, Rio de Janeiro – Brazil

Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Regulation With High Level of Liquidity: New Policy Challenges for Macro and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets

Draft Program as of June 16th 2011 – All names confirmed, except names with (*)

Sponsored by: Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee, The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) and The World Bank

June 30, Thursday

Registration (14:00 – 15:00)

Opening (15:00 – 15:30) – Guido Mantega – Ministry of Finance – Brazil (*)
Alexandre Tombini – Central Bank of Brazil (*)
Jean-Pierre Landau – Central Bank of France

Session 1 (15:30 – 17:30) – How should monetary policy and prudential regulation be used in order to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability?

Chair: Jean-Pierre Landau – Central Bank of France

Presenters:
Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela – ECB
Frederic S. Mishkin – Columbia University

Discussants:
Rakesh Mohan – Yale University
Beny Parnes – BBM
Joaquim Levy – Bradesco Asset Management

• Is it possible for policy-makers to ensure both price and financial stability? What are the policy instruments available to reduce the pro-cyclicality of the financial system while controlling inflation?
• What are the responses of the current modeling exercises of trade-offs between price and financial stability?
• What has the 2007-08 global financial crisis brought into this recurrent debate?

Discussion with G20 Deputies and participants

Roundtable (17:30 – 18:30) – Do we know how to prevent financial bubbles, should we try and if so when and how?

Moderator: TBD

Panelists:

Claudio Borio – BIS
Frederic S. Mishkin – Columbia University
Michael Dooley – UCSC

Discussion with G20 Deputies and participants

Keynote Speech (18:40): Alan Blinder – Princeton University

July 1st, Friday

Session 2 (09:00 – 10:50) – How should financial stability be defined and measured?

Chair: Carlos Márcio Bicalho Cozendey – Ministry of Finance – Brazil

Presenters:
Stijn Claessens – IMF
Joshua Aizenman – UCSC
Octavio de Barros – Bradesco

Discussants:
Jae Chun Kim – Bank of Korea
Dimitri Demekas - IMF
Maria Helena Santana – CVM
Bernard Appy – BMF-BOVESPA
Carlos Kawall – Safra

• What are the various indicators that can define and/or be associated with financial stability and/or instability? (e.g., rapid credit growth beyond past historical trend; stock market developments; rapid asset price growth).
• What indicators should we observe and monitor closely given local market characteristics of financial stability?
• Should financial stability be an explicit objective or merely a concern for central banks?

Discussion with G20 Deputies and participants

Coffee Break (10:50 – 11:10)

Session 3 (11:10 – 13:00) – Should we define new rules for central banks to react to financial instability?

Chair: Mahmoud Mohieldin – World Bank

Presenters:

Pierre-Richard Agénor – University of Manchester
Pier Carlo Padoan – OECD
Claudio Borio – BIS

Discussants:

Manuel Ramos Francia – Central Bank of Mexico
Ilan Goldfajn – Itaú-Unibanco
Eduardo Loyo – BTG Pactual
Samuel Pessoa – FGV/RJ

• Should we aim at designing a rule-based approach to combine monetary policy and prudential regulation?
• How can we best define credit growth gaps? Are they useful to assess financial stability?
• Should flexible inflation targeting (FIT) be adapted to take into account the role for financial conditions in the transmission mechanism?
• What has the 2008-09 global financial crisis brought into this recurrent debate?

Discussion with G20 Deputies and participants

Lunch (13:00 – 14:30) – Keynote speaker: Armínio Fraga – Gávea Investment

Session 4 (14:45 - 16:45) – Emerging Markets (EMEs) experiences with the New Policy Challenges for Macro and Financial Stability in Emerging Markets

Chair: Benoît Coeuré – Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Employment – France

Presenters:

Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos – Central Bank of Brazil
Karim El-Aynaoui – Central Bank of Morroco
David Vegara – IMF
Eduardo Fernandez-Arias – IADB
Ramon Moreno – BIS
Andre Loes– HSBC

• How can EMEs address the problems posed by excessive credit growth and asset price bubbles? What can be the combination of policy instruments that is most efficient?
• Are these issues applicable only to advanced economies and EMEs and how can we address them in low income countries?
• What policy instruments have they been using and which are the most efficient ones?
• How do country differences–exchange rate regime, degree of international financial integration, institutional development–matter?
• Should it be combined with monetary policy, i.e., reside at the central bank? Or would it be better located at the micro-prudential supervisory agencies?

Discussion with G20 Deputies and participants with lead speakers

R. Gopalan – Ministry of Finance – India
Sergio Chodos – BCRA

Wrap-Up Session (16:50 – 18:10) – Can Credit Expansion Happen Without Periodic Financial Crises?

Moderator: TBD

Panelists:
Alan Blinder – Princeton University
Pierre-Richard Agénor – University of Manchester
Otaviano Canuto – World Bank
Murilo Portugal – FEBRABAN

Closing Speech (18:10 – 18:40) – Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva – Central Bank of Brazil